The markets were relatively flat today. The DOW was down 19, the NASDAQ was down 1, and the S&P was up 2.
The DOW's dip put it slightly below over bought, however that is not significant enough to change things. I still see a pull back coming next week.
¶ 3/16/2012 04:01:00 PM 0 comments
Hard to believe, but futures are slightly higher again this morning. We'll see if this can hold up the whole day.
¶ 3/16/2012 09:11:00 AM 0 comments
Good day for the markets today, but not spectacular. The DOW was up 59, the NASDAQ 16, and the S&P 8. The S&P went above 1400 for the first time in 4 years.
Despite all of this positiveness, all the indexes are overbought now (RSI over 70). This includes the SPY. Correction should coming. Additionally, the bleeding in the bond market seemed to stop today. Will see if it reverses tomorrow. I am praying...
¶ 3/15/2012 04:11:00 PM 0 comments
I will not be around for the close, but right now it looks like the markets will close flat. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ and DOW RSI's are near over bought, so we should see some down days in the near future, based on that.
¶ 3/14/2012 03:33:00 PM 0 comments
Great day for the markets. The best day in about a month, as the DOW was up 218, the NASDAQ was up 56, and the S&P was up 25.
The next couple of days will be interesting, as the DOW and NASDAQ's MACD's are bumping up against the center line. A lot of times that creates resistance. A failure to break through usually leads to an extended down period ( a week or so). Additionally, both the DOW and NASDAQ'a RSI's are bumping up against 70 (over bought). The DOW's is at 68, and the NASDAQ's are at 69. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
¶ 3/13/2012 04:24:00 PM 0 comments
The Fed announcement just came out, and it basically said the economy is great. Wow. 8.3% unemployment (and the number is really worse than that), over $4/gallon gas prices, and a housing market in the toilet (expect that to get worse as mortgage rates go up), but we are in great shape.
As you can imagine, the market is loving this. The DOW is up 133 points. However, the MACD is bumping up against the center line. If it can't break through tomorrow, that could be a bad sign. Additionally, the RSI is getting close to over bought.
CORRECTION: Well, I need to apologize to you all. The Fed did not make the statement that I said they did. CNN made that statement. That was their portrayal of what the Fed said. I needed to remember that this is an election year. Below is what the fed really said:
Fed stands pat, downplays pickup in economy
Based on what the article says that the fed said, they are not in a Fantasy Land. They made all the points that I did. Unemployment is still high, and the housing market is still in trouble. Therefore, the fed is keeping rates at near 0% until 2014, and will continue to buy mortgage back securities through June. This good for me, since I will lock in by then.
¶ 3/13/2012 02:22:00 PM 0 comments
Both the DOW and NASDAQ have broken over resistance. I still think they will fall today however. Especially, after the fed announcement.
We shall see. If not, and we get another sustained rally, I need to scrape a lot of cash for my new mortgage.
¶ 3/13/2012 11:06:00 AM 0 comments
Futures are slightly higher this morning. Looks like the DOW will take another stab at 13,000.
¶ 3/13/2012 08:55:00 AM 0 comments
Markets were mixed today, with the DOW up 38, the NASDAQ down 5, and the S&P pretty much unchanged.
Looking at the DOW and NASDAQ, there is significant resistance at the 13,000 and 3,000 levels, respectively. The DOW closed at 12,960, and was as high as 12,976 today. The NASDAQ closed at 2,984, and was as high as 2,994.
I still think the markets are headed down in the short term. One factor tomorrow will be the fed announcement. That could move the markets either way. Bulls are hoping they say the economy is making a comeback, however, if they do not, or say they are still worried, that would be a problem. The fed may give an indication of another possible round of bond buying. From a personal standpoint, that would be great for me. I need those 10 year treasuries staying around 2% or lower.
¶ 3/12/2012 04:08:00 PM 0 comments
Back to flat. The markets were flat today, as the reportedly awesome unemployment report did not do too much for them. As I stated in the previous post, today's report was really just "okay", and not as strong as other media outlets were reporting.
The DOW was up 14 to 12,922, the NASDAQ was up 18, and the S&P was up 5.
Looking at the charts, there are conflicting signs, so it is hard to say where we are going in the short term. Based on today's action, I say we go lower, and test the 50 DMA's of the indexes. The DOW is currently barely over it's 20 day EMA (12,887).
¶ 3/09/2012 04:04:00 PM 0 comments
Surprised by my headline? You probably are if you have been reading the headlines from CNN and the other mainstream media sites. However, my headline is more accurate, and I will tell you why:
1. The amount jobs that were expected to be created was 207,000. The amount we added was 227,000. Pretty much in line. The other outlets are saying this was much better than expected. Really?
2. The expectation for the rate was 8.3% (unchanged). That is exactly what we got. Again, in line.
3. Look at number two above. The unemployment rate was unchanged. How is that possible with 227,000 jobs created? Well, it looks like 227,000 of the millions of people who stopped looking for work (remember these people are not included as unemployed in the rate) decided to start looking again last month. And guess what, this trend will continue this month as well. With the media and Obama saying things are getting better, more of those millions will start looking for work, which will in turn drive the unemployment rate UP.
4. Just to re-emphasize, the unemployment rate was unchanged, so this breaks the three months trend of declining rates.
So how are the markets reacting? Lukewarm. All are up, but not by much. I think that investors know this could be the end of the "good times". The DOW looks topped out at 13,000, and the unemployment rate is bottoming out at a lofty 8.3%.
¶ 3/09/2012 09:41:00 AM 0 comments
Stock futures are much higher this morning, although off there 6am highs. The jobless claim number comes out at 8:30am ET, so that could change things.
¶ 3/08/2012 08:08:00 AM 0 comments
Good day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 78, the NASDAQ was up 25, and the S&P was up 9. This looked like a reflex rally after yesterday's big drop.
Looking at things technically, things still look bearish on the DOW. The MACD continued to drop in negative territory, the RSI is still below 50, and the DOW is still below the 20 day EMA.
Looking at the NASDAQ, it looks better than the DOW. It's MACD flattened out in negative territory, and it's RSI bounced off of 50, finishing at 55. Additionally, unlike the DOW, it closed above it's 20 day EMA, although barely. I think the 20 day EMA is the real key indicator here, so it's hard to say how things will go with the NASDAQ. Also, is it possible we will have divergent markets? NASDAQ up with the DOW and S&P down. I haven't seen that in a long time.
Tomorrow should give us the answer.
¶ 3/07/2012 04:21:00 PM 0 comments
Stock futures are slightly positive this morning. A little reflex rally coming, however, I say the DOW still tests it's 50 DMA.
¶ 3/07/2012 07:19:00 AM 0 comments
Finally, we got the move I was looking for. After 2 weeks of going nowhere, the DOW dropped over 200 points today (203 to be exact) to 12,759. The NASDAQ fell 40, and the S&P fell 21.
Looking at the DOW chart, the index is below the 20 day EMA (12,886) for the first time since December 19th. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is now solidly below the center line. This should be the start of a major correction, however, there will be support at the 50 DMA (12,678) initially. If that falls, then there is a good chance we at least drop to the 200 DMA (~12,000).
Looking at the chart for the NASDAQ, it's almost the same exact situation, except that the RSI is just above 50.
My thinking is that we should test that 50 DMA tomorrow on the DOW.
Below are the DOW and NASDAQ charts:
Stock futures are down significantly this morning. Maybe that correction is finally upon us.
¶ 3/06/2012 07:02:00 AM 0 comments
The DOW was......flat again today. As well as the S&P. The DOW was down 15, and the S&P was down 5. The NASDAQ actually had an almost 1% drop of 26 points. However, all the indexes, including the NASDAQ, are still above their 20 day EMA's and their RSI's are above 50, so we don't really have a good indicator that we are going to get that correction any time soon.
¶ 3/05/2012 04:45:00 PM 0 comments
Can you guess how the markets did today? Shouldn't be too hard based on what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. That's right, they were flat again.
The DOW was down 3, the NASDAQ was down 13, and the S&P was down 4.
I would continue to stay away, until we get a better indication of where things are headed in the short term.
¶ 3/02/2012 04:08:00 PM 0 comments
Futures are essentially flat. Everyone is waiting for the unemployment report.
CORRECTION: The unemployment report will be released next Friday.
UPDATE: Stock futures are now down modestly.
¶ 3/02/2012 07:18:00 AM 0 comments
Mostly flat day on Wall Street today, which has been the theme over the last two weeks. See DOW chart below:
I do think we are getting very close to a correction though. The 20 EMA line is starting to get close to the recent closing prices. If the DOW below falls below that line, that may be the catalyst for that correction. However, tomorrow the unemployment report comes out, and that could trump any negative technical scenario that is forming.
Today's closing numbers had the DOW up 28, the NASDAQ up 22, and the S&P up 8.
¶ 3/01/2012 04:15:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were rather flat today, with the DOW down 2 to 12,983, the NASDAQ up 7, and the S&P up 2.
I had been looking for a decisive day today, but we did not get it. The DOW was able to eclipse 13,000 again, but failed to hold it (today's high was 13,014). I thought that move could lead to a break out, but it didn't happen. On the down side, the reaction to failing to hold 13,000 was muted. We'll see what Monday brings.
I may not post again until Wednesday of next week. It just depends on my travel schedule.
I hope everyone has a great weekend!
¶ 2/24/2012 04:03:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were up today, and as I predicted yesterday, the DOW made another run at eclipsing 13,000. It closed at 12,985, up 46, and got as high as 12,996. I cannot call this a failed attempt yet, since it closed so close to 13,000. That means tomorrow should be the deciding factor. The MACD is still negative, and the RSI is very close to 70 (66).
In my opinion, we will either get a parabolic breakout tomorrow, or the start of a much needed correction.
As for the other indexes, the NASDAQ was up 24, and the S&P was up 6.
¶ 2/23/2012 04:05:00 PM 2 comments
It's a small bone, but yesterday Mitt Romney unveiled a new tax plan, and lo and behold, there is something in there for me (a card carrying member of the middle class). It is a measly 20% reduction in my tax rate. But hey, that is 20% more than what all the other candidates (except Ron Paul) and Obama have proposed.
Now maybe someone will try and beat that. Maybe add in a home buyer tax credit as well? I can dream, right??
¶ 2/22/2012 04:29:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were down today, but not by a lot. The DOW was down 27, the NASDAQ was down 15, and the S&P was down 5.
The DOW barely made another run at 13,000, only getting as high as 12,978 (we closed at 12,939). I still think we may get another attempt up there. Currently the MACD is just below the center line, so if we get some more weakness tomorrow, that correction I mentioned yesterday may become a reality soon.
¶ 2/22/2012 04:06:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were relatively flat, with the DOW up 16, the NASDAQ down 3, and the S&P up 1.
The big news was that the DOW cleared 13,000 today. I would imagine it will make another run at it tomorrow. I think if it fails to hold above it, we may get a decent correction here in the short term. We'll see...
¶ 2/21/2012 04:34:00 PM 0 comments
As I expected, the DOW hit 13,000 today. 13,005 to be exact. It has now backed off, and is at 12,972. Looking at the MACD and RSI, I wonder if the market will now correct after hitting this milestone.
¶ 2/21/2012 02:13:00 PM 0 comments
Stock futures are higher this morning. I am looking for DOW 13,000 today.
¶ 2/17/2012 07:10:00 AM 0 comments
Great day for the markets today, as the DOW was up 123 to 12,904, the NASDAQ was up 44, and the S&P was up 15.
It looks like the DOW went for my option number two from my post yesterday. We should see DOW 13,000 tomorrow for sure. Probably even higher than that. However, after that move, it's hard to say where we go. At over 13,000, the MACD may be positive again, but the RSI may be over 70 (over bought). n Which means we'll have conflicting indicators.
¶ 2/16/2012 04:12:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were decidedly down today, which has been a rarity lately. The DOW was down 97, the NASDAQ was down 16, and the S&P was down 7.
Looking at the chart for the DOW, you can see that it dropped down to it's 20 day EMA (12,736) today, but closed above it at 12,781. The MACD is no longer flat, and is definitely in negative territory now. The RSI is above 50, and well below 70 (over bought). See chart below:
I think tomorrow will be key. If the DOW drops below it's 20 day EMA, I think we are in for some short term weakness, and a test of the 50 DMA (12,434). If it rallies, I think we will finally see DOW 13,000.
¶ 2/15/2012 04:34:00 PM 0 comments
Markets we're basically flat today, so there is no change in my analysis, which is basically wait and see. We are getting nothing to help us determine the short term future.
One note, the DOW had been down around 60 points with about 15 minutes to go, but ended up closing at a positive 4. Not sure what was behind that spike.
¶ 2/14/2012 04:02:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were up today, as the DOW made up most of it's losses from Friday. Final numbers had the DOW up 73, the NASDAQ up 28, and the S&P up 9. Today's gains were attributed to a deal in Greece.
Looking at the DOW, the MACD is still essentially flat (-7), and the RSI is near 70 (65). Not really sure what we will see tomorrow, and there is no good indicator for the short term as well.
¶ 2/13/2012 04:30:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were down today, but not immensely. The DOW was down 89 to 12,801, the NASDAQ was down 23, and the S&P was down 9. This is much better than where it was earlier in the day. The DOW was down to as low as 12,744, which was about 44 points above it's 20 day EMA. Yesterday, I mentioned that that was first support.
Pundits will tell you that the markets were down due to Greece, however, we know that the RSI was just about over bought as yesterday's close, so that is the real reason for the pull back.
Looking ahead, we may see some more weakness Monday, as the DOW should test that 20 day EMA level.
¶ 2/10/2012 04:27:00 PM 0 comments
Futures are down this morning. DOW futures are down 70, NASDAQ futures are down 15, and S&P futures are down 10.
¶ 2/10/2012 07:26:00 AM 0 comments
The markets closed basically flat again, with the DOW up 7, the NASDAQ up 11, and the S&P up 2. The MACD on the DOW is technically positive, but I would call it flat also, since it is easily fluctuating between positive and negative right now, and not really meaningful. Once we get a more substantial number, then I think we can use it as an indicator again.
The RSI is about 70, so we should have a better chance to go down than we do up in the short term, but anything can happen at this point.
¶ 2/09/2012 04:10:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW is now up 21 points, and the MACD is positive.
¶ 2/09/2012 12:16:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW hit 12,925 this morning. The 52-week high, according to Yahoo Finance, is 12,931. So essentially the market hit it's 52-week high today, and then backed off. The DOW was up as much as 41, but is now down 27. The MACD has gone negative again. Prior today's open, the RSI was around 70, which is the over bought line.
Looking at all these factors, I am wondering if we will be heading lower in the short term. First support on the down side is the 20 day EMA (~12,686).
¶ 2/09/2012 10:29:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday's close and this morning's futures are flat. Not much indication of what is to come.
¶ 2/09/2012 07:43:00 AM 0 comments
The markets were up moderately today, as the DOW was up 33, the NASDAQ up 2, and the S&P up 3.
The MACD went positive on the DOW today, but we will need confirmation tomorrow. If we get it, then I think we will see 13,000 very soon on the DOW. It closed at 12,878 today.
¶ 2/07/2012 04:44:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW has just gone positive, and is very close to making the MACD bullish crossover. If we get it, we may see a big rally up to 13,000. That would be a gain of 150 from where were are now (+5).
¶ 2/07/2012 10:53:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday the markets closed slightly down, so there was little changed to the technical picture. The MACD on the DOW is slightly negative still.
This morning, futures are down just a little. We are looking to see if the DOW's MACD can go positive today. That would be very bullish for the short term.
¶ 2/07/2012 07:48:00 AM 0 comments
Great day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 157, the NASDAQ up 46, and the S&P up 19. As mentioned earlier, this was due to the strong jobs report this morning.
Looking at the DOW, despite the big gain, the MACD did not make the positive crossover. If it does it on Monday, that would be very bullish for the near term.
One other note, the NASDAQ hit an 11 year high today. That is pretty impressive.
¶ 2/03/2012 04:05:00 PM 0 comments
This mornings unemployment report vastly exceeded expectations. The rate dropped to 8.3%, and jobs created was almost 250,000. As you would expect, futures have sky rocketed on the news. This is a game changer for the market. The DOW's MACD should reverse and go positive today, which is very bullish. I would look for new 52-week high, and a target of 13,000 for the DOW now.
¶ 2/03/2012 09:00:00 AM 0 comments
The market futures are essentially flat right now. Everyone is obviously waiting for the Unemployment Report (8:30am).
¶ 2/03/2012 07:53:00 AM 0 comments
Markets were pretty much flat today. The DOW was down 11, the NASDAQ was up 11, and the S&P was up 1.
Since there was not much movement here today, we are still at a crossroads technically. Which means tomorrow's unemployment report could be the deciding factor. Consensus estimates are for 150,000 jobs to be created, and for the rate to rise from 8.5% to 8.6%. We'll see at 8:30am tomorrow.
¶ 2/02/2012 04:00:00 PM 0 comments
The markets had a good day yesterday. Another good day today would really make the DOW chart look good. It does not look bad now, but a good showing could push the MACD back over the positive line.
Currently, futures are essentially flat. At 8:30am ET the jobless claims number comes out. That could impact how things go today.
¶ 2/02/2012 07:45:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday, the markets ended essentially flat. This morning, the futures are nicely positive. Had we ended down 40-60, which is where we were around 3pm, things probably would have been different this morning.
¶ 2/01/2012 06:48:00 AM 1 comments
I will not be around for the close, so I will post late tonight. However, I will mention that if the DOW stays in this range (down 40-60), then we would have a confirmed negative MACD cross. On the flip side, the DOW is still above it's 20 day EMA and it's RSI is still above 50. Therefore, we do not have a clear direction yet. The market could base around these levels and then move higher, or it could tank below the 20 day EMA. Another factor will be Friday's unemployment report.
¶ 1/31/2012 02:17:00 PM 0 comments
The markets are having a decent start. The DOW is up 37, and could have a positive MACD reversal. This would be very bullish.
¶ 1/31/2012 09:56:00 AM 0 comments
Not decisive. Unfortunately, despite the substantial early movement in the markets (DOW was down 132 points), they ended almost flat. So we are left with very little indication of future direction.
The DOW ended up closing down 7, the NASDAQ down 5, and the S&P down 3.
Looking at the chart for the DOW, there some positives, but also a negative. On the positive side, the DOW fell to the 20 day EMA (12,526), but then bounced off it nicely. This is usually a bullish sign. Additionally, the RSI is above 50, but below 70 (70 is considered over bought, and below 50 is considered weak). On the negative side, the MACD made the bearish crossover. However, we need to see confirmation of that tomorrow. See chart below:
At this point, I would still stay away from the market until we get a clearer signal. That could come as early as tomorrow. We shall see.
¶ 1/30/2012 04:10:00 PM 0 comments
Futures are significantly down. This may be the decisive day I was looking for.
¶ 1/30/2012 09:04:00 AM 0 comments
