The 2011 trading year is over. Not a good year for me, and a slightly down year for the markets.
For today, the markets were down, with the DOW down 61, the NASDAQ down 9, and the S&P down 5. Despite the negative day, I still think the markets do well over the next couple of weeks (see previous post).
I am looking forward to a joyous 2012, although none of that has to do with the stock market. Lot's of big events in my life next year, and I am excited about them. I hope all of you have a wonderful and happy new year!
¶ 12/30/2011 04:04:00 PM 2 comments
The DOW is off by 33 points, however, things still look bullish for the next couple of weeks:
There is some resistance at 12,300 now, but I think that will fall next week.
¶ 12/30/2011 01:54:00 PM 0 comments
Good day for the markets, as they pretty much erased yesterday's losses. The DOW was up 136, the NASDAQ up 24, and the S&P up 13.
In past years I have mentioned the "January Effect". A bullish phenomena that sometimes occurs at the start of January as funds increase positions. I think we may see it in 2012.
¶ 12/29/2011 04:22:00 PM 0 comments
The markets are up this morning, with the DOW ahead 84, the NASDAQ up 5, and the S&P up 7.
¶ 12/29/2011 10:08:00 AM 0 comments
A down day for the markets, as the DOW finished off by 140, the NASDAQ by 35, and the S&P by 18.
Even though the DOW finished 20 points lower than where it was when I made my previous post, the analysis is still the same.
I would chalk today up to profit taking.
¶ 12/28/2011 04:13:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW is down 120 right now, but there should be no worries if you are bullish. See chart below:
As you can see, the DOW is heading down to support which is around the three major moving averages. It is also heading down to support on the MACD (center line) and the RSI (50). Additionally, it is getting ready to make a Golden Cross (50 DMA crossing over 200 DMA), which is usually a very bullish indicator.
Keep in mind this is all technical, and does not factor in any negative world events that may occur.
¶ 12/28/2011 11:39:00 AM 0 comments
The markets were flat in pre-market, and that is where they ended. They were all about as close to unchanged as you can get. The DOW was down 3, the NASDAQ up 7, and the S&P essentially flat.
With today's inaction, I still stick by what I said Friday.
¶ 12/27/2011 04:33:00 PM 0 comments
In the 2 month extension of the payroll tax cut bill, congress decided it was a good idea to increase the fees on FHA loans. Just brilliant. The housing industry is in the toilet, so now you make it more expensive to buy one???
Does anyone think over there?
¶ 12/27/2011 01:57:00 PM 0 comments
Currently, the futures are pretty much flat. DOW futures down just 11.
¶ 12/27/2011 07:37:00 AM 0 comments
Good day for the markets, as the DOW was up 124, the NASDAQ up 19, and the S&P up 11. The DOW closed at 12,294. That should be enough to be considered "breaking through resistance" at 12,200. Therefore, we should see a bullish trend over the next couple of weeks, and a challenge of the high made in July of about 12,800. The 52-week high is just below 13,000 made back in May.
¶ 12/23/2011 04:05:00 PM 0 comments
The markets had a decent day today, with the DOW up 62, the NASDAQ up 21, and the S&P up 10.
The DOW now has all indicators reading bullish: It is above all three major moving averages, it's RSI is above 50 and rising, and it's MACD just went positive*. I put an asterisk there because it's not really bullish in my opinion, until we see follow through the next day. In the past I have seen it fall below the center line the very next day after going above it, so I like to wait to call it "bullish". There is also another big problem here. The DOW closed at 12,170 today, and was as high as 12,183, just below major resistance at 12,200. It really needs to blow through that before you can feel good if you are a bull. See chart below:
As you can see, the DOW has failed to truly clear 12,200 on several occasions over the last couple of months. So it is a pretty important level to get past if you are bullish.
¶ 12/22/2011 04:55:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were essentially flat yesterday, and the futures are looking that way this morning. This despite good news on unemployment claims. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.
¶ 12/22/2011 09:23:00 AM 0 comments
Great day on Wall Street as the DOW was up 337, the NASDAQ was up 81, and the S&P was up 36. As I mentioned in the post below, today erased a number of bearish indicators. However, if you are a bull you are not out of the woods yet. 12,200 is still major major resistance. The DOW closed at 12,107 today.
¶ 12/20/2011 04:10:00 PM 2 comments
That is an old saying, but as you have seen over the last few weeks it's good advice. I bring this up because the DOW is up 259 points today. This is due to a better than expected housing report.
The DOW is now over all three major moving averages. The RSI is above 50 again. The MACD is headed for a bullish crossover, and the DOW make may a Golden Cross soon (a bullish indicator that occurs when the 50 DMA crosses over the 200 DMA).
I am not saying you should be bullish now, what I am saying is that we could get a bullish pattern very soon, just a day after it looked like we were in a bearish one.
Thankfully, I have no money involved here.
¶ 12/20/2011 10:33:00 AM 0 comments
It has been a pretty exciting race for the White House already, with Republicans having a tough time deciding who they want to run against Barrack Obama. I think this is because the field is weak.
In recent years the Iowa Caucasus have not always predicted the winner of the nomination, however, this year I think it has a good chance to do so. In my opinion, the winner will either be Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Oops, did I say Rick Perry? Yes, I did, and I meant to.
I have been following the polls, and the trends, and I have calculated in the unpredictability of the Caucasus themselves. From what I can see, Gingrich is declining into oblivion, and Santorum, Bachman, and Hunstman are too low at this point to be revived. That leaves Romney and Perry.
Romney has always had a solid base of supporters, it just has not been high enough to surpass the latest "flavor of the month" that Republicans have been enamored with. Iowa's Republicans are more conservative than other states, so they have had a hard time being supportive of Romney since they doubt his sincerity as a conservative. However, they definitely do not want to see another term for Obama, and they may now be coming around to the idea that Romney is the best chance to accomplish that.
As for Perry, he does have the conservative credentials, but has made a series of gaffes and has had a number of poor debate performances. However, he did well in the last two Iowa debates, and has increased his ad spending and time in the state. His polling numbers have increased from 5% to 16%, and is now in 3rd position in one recent poll. He might have enough momentum to win.
Why I think the Iowa Caucus result could propel the winner to the nomination: For Mitt Romney, it will be an upset win for him in Iowa, and show that the also rans have no chance against the real front runner. The next primary is in New Hampshire, and Mitt has never lost his lead there. He would have back to back wins after that primary if he wins Iowa. I think that would be enough to convince Republicans that he is the real front runner, and that they need to unite behind him for an eventual victory against Obama.
For Rick Perry, it will revive a campaign that had once been on top. It will show that he could compete with Romney, and is a viable candidate. With many Republicans seeking an alternative to Romney, they will finally have their best "anyone but Romney" candidate. Romney would still win New Hampshire if he was defeated in Iowa, but Rick would be a shoe-in for South Carolina, and possibly Florida as well. A win there could easily propel Perry to the nomination.
We'll see soon enough. The Caucasus are just two weeks away...
¶ 12/20/2011 09:19:00 AM 0 comments
Market futures are up this morning, but not by a wide margin.
¶ 12/20/2011 07:40:00 AM 0 comments
Bad day for the markets, however, this should have been expected. The DOW was down 100 points, the NASDAQ down 32, and the S&P down 14.
The DOW put up a fight this morning, as it went as high as 11,925 (+60), just under the 200 DMA (11,937), but later capitulated. After that failure, it broke below the 50 DMA (11,821), and closed below it. That was the last major moving average to fall. The DOW is now below all three for the first time since late November.
I am targeting the DOW to fall as low as 10,600 to 10,800 over the next couple of weeks or so.
¶ 12/19/2011 04:07:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were up modestly today, with the DOW up 45, the NASDAQ up 2, and the S&P up 4.
This was a fairly weak day, and did nothing to change my bearish outlook. The RSI on the DOW is still below 50, and the MACD is still in negative territory. I would think the market will be down substantially tomorrow, but we'll see.
¶ 12/15/2011 04:16:00 PM 3 comments
Stock futures are slightly up this morning. However, yesterday the markets ended down. The DOW was down 131 points. This pushed it below the 200 DMA, sent the RSI below 50, and the MACD into negative territory. The DOW is now just above the 50 DMA (11,775). I think that is why we are seeing a little bounce this morning. In my opinion this should be short lived. The DOW should head down to around 10,600 in the coming days/weeks.
¶ 12/15/2011 07:22:00 AM 0 comments
I will not be around for the close, so I will not be able to see if we have a bear signal. Looking at the intra day, I would think a loss of 100 points or more on the DOW today would do it.
As an asside, the pattern is starting to look like an upside down "W", which is very bearish:
Market futures are down, but not by a lot. However, they have been getting worse. Will we get our bear signal today?
¶ 12/14/2011 07:47:00 AM 0 comments
The markets finished down today. The DOW was off 66, the NASDAQ down 33, and the S&P down 11. The DOW finished below 12,000 support (11,955), but still closed above the 200 DMA (11,943). Therefore, I do not see it as enough to cause a big breakdown.
All the indicators are still on support. The DOW is above all three major moving averages, the RSI is above the 50 level, and the MACD is still above the center line. A decent drop tomorrow though should eliminate all of that. If that occurs, then I think we would be safe in assuming a pretty steep downtrend in the coming weeks.
So far, every time we hit one of these points where we might get a clear signal of the markets future direction, it goes the opposite way. We'll see what happens this time around...
¶ 12/13/2011 04:57:00 PM 0 comments
It looks like the DOW will now bounce off support and possibly challenge 12,200 again.
¶ 12/13/2011 07:24:00 AM 0 comments
No breakout for the DOW today, instead it fell back to support at around 12,000. For over a week now it has been bouncing between support (12,000) and resistance (12,200). Conventional wisdom would say that a move significantly above resistance or below support will tell us our future direction for the next several weeks.
¶ 12/12/2011 11:00:00 AM 0 comments
Good day for the markets, as the DOW was up 187, the NASDAQ was up 50, and the S&P was up 21. All the indexes were close to erasing all of yesterday's losses.
The DOW closed at 12,184, just under resistance at 12,200. If you have been reading the blog the last few days, you know how this level has been tough for the DOW to get through. Looking at my commentary from last night, you can see that the DOW is very close to following the bullish route I outlined. It bounced off support today, so all we need now is for the DOW to smash through, and close well above, 12,200 on Monday. That would be a very bullish move. We'll see what happens.
¶ 12/09/2011 04:41:00 PM 0 comments
The futures are flat this morning. Should be an interesting day.
¶ 12/09/2011 09:13:00 AM 0 comments
The markets had a bad day today, the DOW was down 199, the NASDAQ was down 53, and the S&P was down 27. The chart for the DOW is below:
The DOW looks like it is on support right now.
I could see this going one or two ways in the next couple of days. One route would be for support to hold, and then the DOW to really break through 12,200. A good breakout over that level should send it up to around 12,750 in the short term. The other route would be a break of support, and a severe correction down to below 11,000 in the short term. Obviously we could be flat for a while, but I really think it will be one of those two routes. We'll see.
¶ 12/08/2011 04:43:00 PM 0 comments
Stock futures are pretty much flat this morning. The DOW was up 46 to 12,196 yesterday. Just under 12,200 resistance. Today should be interesting.
¶ 12/08/2011 08:17:00 AM 0 comments
The markets are down right now. Not by a lot though. Unless we get a big move either way by the close, I doubt today will provide us any clues on where the market is headed in the short term (short term being the next couple of weeks or so).
¶ 12/07/2011 11:05:00 AM 0 comments
The markets were mixed today with the DOW up 52, the NASDAQ down 6, and the S&P up 1. The DOW closed at 12,150, but was as high as 12,216. So it did break 12,200, but not by much. And it did not close over it as well. I am not sure if the 16 point breach is enough to be a catalyst for a near term breakout. I think we will have to see what happens tomorrow.
¶ 12/06/2011 04:02:00 PM 0 comments
Stock futures are up, but barely. Not very much of an indication of where we are headed today. We'll keep an eye on it.
¶ 12/06/2011 07:15:00 AM 0 comments
A positive day on Wall Street, but not by much. The DOW was up 79, the NASDAQ up 29, and the S&P up 13.
The DOW was as high as 12,187 at one point, which was +156. As you can see, it could not penetrate stiff resistance at 12,200. Tomorrow could be a telling day for the short term direction of the market. Another failure at 12,200 could send the market down big. On the other hand, a break of 12,200 may mean that we will see the highs set this summer around 12,750. Below is the current DOW chart:
Futures are up decently right now.
It looks like the DOW closed down 1 on Friday. This despite a good unemployment report. I would say that is not a good sign, but we shall see. I think the key will be the 12,200 level. If the DOW can get by that today, the market could be making yet another change in direction. The technicals look decent, but I think we need to see a clearing of resistance first.
¶ 12/05/2011 07:23:00 AM 0 comments
I will not be around for the close, so I will make my commentary late Sunday or Monday. The market is surprising lukewarm today, despite the great news. I would still be very cautious if I was a bull.
¶ 12/02/2011 10:54:00 AM 0 comments
We had a great jobs report today, only 120,000 jobs created, but the rate fell to 8.6% from 9.1%. Futures were already up big, so this should keep it going.
¶ 12/02/2011 08:46:00 AM 0 comments
Stock futures are up strong this morning. Will the DOW break 12,200?
¶ 12/02/2011 07:12:00 AM 0 comments
Markets closed mixed today, with the DOW down 26, the NASDAQ up 6, and the S&P down 2.
Looking at the chart for the DOW, the MACD did go positive today, but barely. It was not by enough for the bulls to claim victory, in my opinion. You would want to see a break of 12,200 before starting to feel more confident of a bullish future. The DOW is currently at 12,020.
¶ 12/01/2011 04:32:00 PM 0 comments
About a month ago I said I was disappointed with all of the job recovery plans I saw from the candidates and Obama. However, I never checked Gingrich's plan. I really didn't think he had a shot. Now that he does, I took a look. Here it is:
Of course there is more to being President than the economy. There is foreign policy, and the character of the man himself (or woman). I am not sure about Newt on the last two, so I am not sure whether I would vote for him. I actually liked Romney's foreign policy views. The first primary is about a month or so away, so we'll see what happens...
¶ 12/01/2011 10:45:00 AM 0 comments
