The markets were rather flat today, with the DOW down 2 to 12,983, the NASDAQ up 7, and the S&P up 2.
I had been looking for a decisive day today, but we did not get it. The DOW was able to eclipse 13,000 again, but failed to hold it (today's high was 13,014). I thought that move could lead to a break out, but it didn't happen. On the down side, the reaction to failing to hold 13,000 was muted. We'll see what Monday brings.
I may not post again until Wednesday of next week. It just depends on my travel schedule.
I hope everyone has a great weekend!
¶ 2/24/2012 04:03:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were up today, and as I predicted yesterday, the DOW made another run at eclipsing 13,000. It closed at 12,985, up 46, and got as high as 12,996. I cannot call this a failed attempt yet, since it closed so close to 13,000. That means tomorrow should be the deciding factor. The MACD is still negative, and the RSI is very close to 70 (66).
In my opinion, we will either get a parabolic breakout tomorrow, or the start of a much needed correction.
As for the other indexes, the NASDAQ was up 24, and the S&P was up 6.
¶ 2/23/2012 04:05:00 PM 2 comments
It's a small bone, but yesterday Mitt Romney unveiled a new tax plan, and lo and behold, there is something in there for me (a card carrying member of the middle class). It is a measly 20% reduction in my tax rate. But hey, that is 20% more than what all the other candidates (except Ron Paul) and Obama have proposed.
Now maybe someone will try and beat that. Maybe add in a home buyer tax credit as well? I can dream, right??
¶ 2/22/2012 04:29:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were down today, but not by a lot. The DOW was down 27, the NASDAQ was down 15, and the S&P was down 5.
The DOW barely made another run at 13,000, only getting as high as 12,978 (we closed at 12,939). I still think we may get another attempt up there. Currently the MACD is just below the center line, so if we get some more weakness tomorrow, that correction I mentioned yesterday may become a reality soon.
¶ 2/22/2012 04:06:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were relatively flat, with the DOW up 16, the NASDAQ down 3, and the S&P up 1.
The big news was that the DOW cleared 13,000 today. I would imagine it will make another run at it tomorrow. I think if it fails to hold above it, we may get a decent correction here in the short term. We'll see...
¶ 2/21/2012 04:34:00 PM 0 comments
As I expected, the DOW hit 13,000 today. 13,005 to be exact. It has now backed off, and is at 12,972. Looking at the MACD and RSI, I wonder if the market will now correct after hitting this milestone.
¶ 2/21/2012 02:13:00 PM 0 comments
Stock futures are higher this morning. I am looking for DOW 13,000 today.
¶ 2/17/2012 07:10:00 AM 0 comments
Great day for the markets today, as the DOW was up 123 to 12,904, the NASDAQ was up 44, and the S&P was up 15.
It looks like the DOW went for my option number two from my post yesterday. We should see DOW 13,000 tomorrow for sure. Probably even higher than that. However, after that move, it's hard to say where we go. At over 13,000, the MACD may be positive again, but the RSI may be over 70 (over bought). n Which means we'll have conflicting indicators.
¶ 2/16/2012 04:12:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were decidedly down today, which has been a rarity lately. The DOW was down 97, the NASDAQ was down 16, and the S&P was down 7.
Looking at the chart for the DOW, you can see that it dropped down to it's 20 day EMA (12,736) today, but closed above it at 12,781. The MACD is no longer flat, and is definitely in negative territory now. The RSI is above 50, and well below 70 (over bought). See chart below:
I think tomorrow will be key. If the DOW drops below it's 20 day EMA, I think we are in for some short term weakness, and a test of the 50 DMA (12,434). If it rallies, I think we will finally see DOW 13,000.
¶ 2/15/2012 04:34:00 PM 0 comments
Markets we're basically flat today, so there is no change in my analysis, which is basically wait and see. We are getting nothing to help us determine the short term future.
One note, the DOW had been down around 60 points with about 15 minutes to go, but ended up closing at a positive 4. Not sure what was behind that spike.
¶ 2/14/2012 04:02:00 PM 0 comments
Markets were up today, as the DOW made up most of it's losses from Friday. Final numbers had the DOW up 73, the NASDAQ up 28, and the S&P up 9. Today's gains were attributed to a deal in Greece.
Looking at the DOW, the MACD is still essentially flat (-7), and the RSI is near 70 (65). Not really sure what we will see tomorrow, and there is no good indicator for the short term as well.
¶ 2/13/2012 04:30:00 PM 0 comments
The markets were down today, but not immensely. The DOW was down 89 to 12,801, the NASDAQ was down 23, and the S&P was down 9. This is much better than where it was earlier in the day. The DOW was down to as low as 12,744, which was about 44 points above it's 20 day EMA. Yesterday, I mentioned that that was first support.
Pundits will tell you that the markets were down due to Greece, however, we know that the RSI was just about over bought as yesterday's close, so that is the real reason for the pull back.
Looking ahead, we may see some more weakness Monday, as the DOW should test that 20 day EMA level.
¶ 2/10/2012 04:27:00 PM 0 comments
Futures are down this morning. DOW futures are down 70, NASDAQ futures are down 15, and S&P futures are down 10.
¶ 2/10/2012 07:26:00 AM 0 comments
The markets closed basically flat again, with the DOW up 7, the NASDAQ up 11, and the S&P up 2. The MACD on the DOW is technically positive, but I would call it flat also, since it is easily fluctuating between positive and negative right now, and not really meaningful. Once we get a more substantial number, then I think we can use it as an indicator again.
The RSI is about 70, so we should have a better chance to go down than we do up in the short term, but anything can happen at this point.
¶ 2/09/2012 04:10:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW is now up 21 points, and the MACD is positive.
¶ 2/09/2012 12:16:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW hit 12,925 this morning. The 52-week high, according to Yahoo Finance, is 12,931. So essentially the market hit it's 52-week high today, and then backed off. The DOW was up as much as 41, but is now down 27. The MACD has gone negative again. Prior today's open, the RSI was around 70, which is the over bought line.
Looking at all these factors, I am wondering if we will be heading lower in the short term. First support on the down side is the 20 day EMA (~12,686).
¶ 2/09/2012 10:29:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday's close and this morning's futures are flat. Not much indication of what is to come.
¶ 2/09/2012 07:43:00 AM 0 comments
The markets were up moderately today, as the DOW was up 33, the NASDAQ up 2, and the S&P up 3.
The MACD went positive on the DOW today, but we will need confirmation tomorrow. If we get it, then I think we will see 13,000 very soon on the DOW. It closed at 12,878 today.
¶ 2/07/2012 04:44:00 PM 0 comments
The DOW has just gone positive, and is very close to making the MACD bullish crossover. If we get it, we may see a big rally up to 13,000. That would be a gain of 150 from where were are now (+5).
¶ 2/07/2012 10:53:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday the markets closed slightly down, so there was little changed to the technical picture. The MACD on the DOW is slightly negative still.
This morning, futures are down just a little. We are looking to see if the DOW's MACD can go positive today. That would be very bullish for the short term.
¶ 2/07/2012 07:48:00 AM 0 comments
Great day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 157, the NASDAQ up 46, and the S&P up 19. As mentioned earlier, this was due to the strong jobs report this morning.
Looking at the DOW, despite the big gain, the MACD did not make the positive crossover. If it does it on Monday, that would be very bullish for the near term.
One other note, the NASDAQ hit an 11 year high today. That is pretty impressive.
¶ 2/03/2012 04:05:00 PM 0 comments
This mornings unemployment report vastly exceeded expectations. The rate dropped to 8.3%, and jobs created was almost 250,000. As you would expect, futures have sky rocketed on the news. This is a game changer for the market. The DOW's MACD should reverse and go positive today, which is very bullish. I would look for new 52-week high, and a target of 13,000 for the DOW now.
¶ 2/03/2012 09:00:00 AM 0 comments
The market futures are essentially flat right now. Everyone is obviously waiting for the Unemployment Report (8:30am).
¶ 2/03/2012 07:53:00 AM 0 comments
Markets were pretty much flat today. The DOW was down 11, the NASDAQ was up 11, and the S&P was up 1.
Since there was not much movement here today, we are still at a crossroads technically. Which means tomorrow's unemployment report could be the deciding factor. Consensus estimates are for 150,000 jobs to be created, and for the rate to rise from 8.5% to 8.6%. We'll see at 8:30am tomorrow.
¶ 2/02/2012 04:00:00 PM 0 comments
The markets had a good day yesterday. Another good day today would really make the DOW chart look good. It does not look bad now, but a good showing could push the MACD back over the positive line.
Currently, futures are essentially flat. At 8:30am ET the jobless claims number comes out. That could impact how things go today.
¶ 2/02/2012 07:45:00 AM 0 comments
Yesterday, the markets ended essentially flat. This morning, the futures are nicely positive. Had we ended down 40-60, which is where we were around 3pm, things probably would have been different this morning.
¶ 2/01/2012 06:48:00 AM 1 comments
