STOCK INSIGHT

Closing Numbers - 1/27/12

2012-01-27T16:04:00.002-05:00

Mostly down day on Wall Street today, with the DOW down 74, the S&P down 2, and the NASDAQ up 11. I am not sure what kept the NASDAQ in the black.

Looking at the DOW, today was not as decisive a day as I would have liked. The MACD is still positive, and the upward trend is still intact. Anything could happen Monday. I would still be on the sidelines at this time though, as the RSI is still pretty high, so there may not be much upside left. Additionally, the MACD is very close to going negative. Current DOW chart is below:

Futures

2012-01-27T07:19:00.001-05:00

Futures are essentially flat this morning.

Closing Numbers - 1/26/12

2012-01-26T16:12:00.002-05:00

Slightly down day on Wall Street, as the DOW was down 22 to 12,735, the NASDAQ was down 13, and the S&P was down 8.

The DOW had been up as much as 85, and surpassed my 12,800 target at 12,842. Now that the market has pulled back after eclipsing this target, it's possible we will see a significant correction. However, there is the chance the market will try for the 52-week high, or the 13,000 level first. The RSI is back below 70 (67.64), so it is not out of the question. I think tomorrow is the key day.

DOW Target Hit

2012-01-26T10:25:00.002-05:00

The DOW hit my target from weeks ago of 12,800 this morning. The high so far is actually 12,842. The RSI is now over 70 (over bought), however, this a break out type move, so that could be okay. The 52-week high on the DOW is 12,929. I wonder if we will hit that today. That should be the next resistance, followed by 13,000 (psychological resistance).

In my opinion, after this momentum stalls, it would be prudent to exit the market.

Futures

2012-01-26T08:19:00.001-05:00

Futures are slightly positive right now. It looks like DOW 12,800 will become a reality this morning.

Is Obama Channeling George H.W. Bush?

2012-01-25T21:25:00.000-05:00

It sure seemed like it last night. Last night Barack Obama basically said the economy is on the right track, and getting better. It's hard to understand what he is basing this on. One decent unemployment report in December? Keep in mind that while 8.5% is better than the 9% or so we had in the fall, it's still bad. Additionally, it's only one months report.

The big issue that cost George H.W. Bush the Election to Bill Clinton, was that he was out of touch with Americans suffering in a bad economy. He essentially was saying the same things that Obama said last night, until it was too late. By the time he realized what the situation was, and started reaching out to Americans, they had already made up their mind that he should no longer be President. After last night's state of the union, it seems that Obama is making the same mistake.

Closing Numbers - 1/25/12

2012-01-25T16:21:00.000-05:00

Good day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 83, the NASDAQ up 32, and the S&P up 11.

The DOW had been making the pull back I expected today, as it was down as much as 96 points at one point intra day, but then rebounded after the fed announced that they will hold interest rates low until late 2014. See chart below:

At it's lowest point, the DOW was down about 200 points from it's recent high last week. I think that was a good spot for a technical rebound, and the fed announcement was the catalyst. Today's high was 12,778, which is just 22 points away from my 12,800 target. With the RSI almost as 70, we may not see much more upward movement tomorrow. However, there is a chance that we will have a breakout over 12,800 resistance up to 13,000. At that point I would think it would be time to exit the market for a bit. We'll see how it goes.

Futures

2012-01-25T07:44:00.000-05:00

DOW and S&P futures are down, while NASDAQ futures are up.

Closing Numbers - 1/24/12

2012-01-24T16:09:00.003-05:00

Another mild drop in the markets today. The DOW was down only 33, the NASDAQ was actually up 2, and the S&P was down only 1.

My thoughts are the same as yesterday, since we did not move much. The RSI is still up there, so we could still see a decent pull back tomorrow. I think once that is out of the way, we should see my 12,800 target on the DOW (we closed at 12,676 today).

Mitt Romney's Effective Tax Rate Should Be Zero

2012-01-24T09:37:00.000-05:00

Tonight you will probably hear a lot of pompous self-righteousness from Barack Obama on "fairness". I am pretty sure that he will cite Mitt Romney's effective tax rate of 14% as an example of why the current tax code is unfair and favors the rich.

Before I get into the "fairness" of capital gains taxes, please read the article below, on how Mitt Romney's effective tax rate is actually higher than most Americans:

Is Romney's effective tax rate lower than yours?

President Obama in his State of the Union Address will make the case that Capital Gains rates should be higher, which I completely disagree with, and find unfair. If you are a investor/trader, you should be joining in with me here.

Capital Gains are taxes that are paid on top of taxes you have already paid. Double taxation. To give you an example of how unfair and unproductive this tax is, just look at this scenario. You and your neighbor both make $70,000 a year, you both pay taxes on that money. The next year, you decide to invest your money in stocks. You make money on that money, and now have to pay taxes on it again. Your neighbor puts the money under his mattress. He pays no additional taxes on the money. Do we really want to encourage that type of money management? Additionally, why should you have to pay taxes twice?

Unfortunately, the unfairness does not stop there. Let's say you had a very good year that year, and made $50,000 in profit on your investments. You will be facing a pretty substantial tax bill the following year. However, in that following year, you have a miserable investing year, losing all of the $50,000 that you made. Do you get the taxes back that you paid last year? Can you deduct all $50,000 from your income this year? No, you cannot. Is that fair? No.

So tonight when Obama talks about fairness and Mitt Romney, please be a little skeptical. It is not as simple as he will make it out to be, and it certainly has nothing to do with "fairness"...

Futures

2012-01-24T07:38:00.001-05:00

Market futures are down slightly.

Closing Numbers - 1/23/12

2012-01-23T16:28:00.003-05:00

Relatively flat day on Wall Street today, as the DOW was down 12, the NASDAQ down 3, and the S&P up 1.

Looking at tomorrow, I could still see a decent pullback before resuming the upward trend. Today's action could not really be considered a pullback.

On a side note, for all the IDCC fans, I was right. I should have stuck to my convictions. However, time was never on my side. Today IDCC announced that they failed to sell the company or it's patents. It is currently trading at $38, down over $6 in AH, and well off it's $82 high.

Markets

2012-01-23T12:22:00.001-05:00

The markets are a little down today, but that was expected (see Friday's post).

Closing Numbers - 1/20/12

2012-01-20T16:11:00.001-05:00

Very good day for the DOW, as it was up 96 to 12,720. 80 points away from my target. This was the fourth straight day of gains for the index.

Will it continue on Monday? It is hard to say, since even though it is below my target, the RSI is getting up there. Currently it is at 69.62. The 70 level is considered overbought. See chart below:

I think there is a good chance we do see a pullback on Monday, but then we should resume the upward momentum Tuesday, eventually hitting my 12,800 target.

As for the NASDAQ and S&P today, they were almost flat, as Google put a lot of downward pressure on them. Google was down over 8% on disappointing earnings. Officially, the NASDAQ lost 2, while the S&P gained 1.

Republicans Get What They Deserve

2012-01-20T10:21:00.003-05:00

Which is a Obama Election Victory in 2012. That's right, I believe that Barack Obama will be reelected in November, and by a wide margin. Why have I come to this conclusion? Because I think Newt Gingrich will win South Carolina, and thus the Republican Nomination. This is a terrible mistake by the GOP. If Obama is the "food stamp" president, then Newt Gingrich is the "side show" presidential candidate.

Republicans like Newt Gingrich because he is good at tearing people apart in debates (which are a side show in themselves). He provides great entertainment, and is funny. Is that how you pick a President? Just because he is fun to watch on TV? Unfortunately, it looks like the answer is yes for most Republicans.

So this fall, they will have fun watching Newt rip on the President, and then be in misery watching Barack Obama be overwhelmingly reelected. And they will have no one to blame but themselves...

Futures

2012-01-20T09:15:00.001-05:00

Futures are flat to slightly down this morning.

Closing Numbers - 1/19/12

2012-01-19T16:05:00.002-05:00

Another good day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 46, the NASDAQ up 19, and the S&P up 6. I thought we may see a big break out today, but that did not come to pass. I still think that is possible for tomorrow.

Futures Up

2012-01-19T07:48:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 1/18/12

2012-01-18T16:05:00.002-05:00

A good day on Wall Street today, as the DOW was up 97, the NASDAQ up 42, and the S&P up 14. I have a feeling we could see a break out tomorrow. Remember I have a target of 12,800 on the DOW for the very short term (the DOW closed at 12,579 today). We'll see what happens.

Futures Slightly Positive

2012-01-18T07:46:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 4/17/12

2012-01-17T16:18:00.002-05:00

An okay day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 60, the NASDAQ up 17, and the S&P up 5. However, things had been much better earlier in the day, when the DOW was up as much as 142 points.

Looking at the chart, I still am looking for 12,800 on the DOW over the next week or two.

Futures

2012-01-17T09:23:00.001-05:00

Stock futures are modestly positive this morning. Technically speaking, we should see an up day here. Fundamentally, it looks like the markets have shrugged off the European downgrades from late Friday.

Memo to Obama: Actions Speak Louder Than Words

2012-01-16T15:37:00.000-05:00

This past Saturday on Obama's weekly radio program, he implored United States businesses to stay in the country. He pledged that the Government, under his administration, "would do everything in it's power to help". This unfortunately is completely untrue.

While Obama is saying one thing, he is doing something vastly different with his actions. About a week prior to this radio address, Obama appointed three members to the National Labor Review Board (NLRB). He made the appointments as "recess" appointments, even though congress was not in recess. Without the appointments, the board would not have been able to function. Therefore, it is obvious that it was very important to Obama that it did function, hence the controversial appointments.

What does the NLRB do? Well, this past year it discouraged businesses from doing business in the United States. That's right, the opposite of what Obama was preaching on Saturday. A prime example of how the NRLB discouraged businesses to stay in the U.S., was how it handled Boeing's move to build one of it's airplane lines in South Carolina. Currently, all of Boeing's airplanes are built in Washington State with union labor. This is pretty costly. In order to save costs, Boeing wanted to build this new line in South Carolina, which is a "right to work" state. Meaning that companies do not have to use union labor. While this move to South Carolina would have been bad for unions, it would have been good for the United States. Instead of Boeing moving their operations overseas, where the labor is much cheaper, they decided to stay in the U.S. Unfortunately, the NLRB, on the unions behalf, prevented Boeing from moving that project to South Carolina by filing a lawsuit against them.

Only after agreeing to build another new line of airplane in Washington State (with union labor), did the NRLB allow Boeing to move that other project to South Carolina.

As you can see, the Obama administration through it's NRLB was able to strong arm Boeing into continuing to use union labor in Washington State. The United States was lucky that Boeing didn't just pick up and move to another country. Maybe they could not do it for other reasons, however, do not be surprised if Boeing makes that move in the future, or just goes bankrupt. One of the really bad things in this situation, was that this sent a message to other companies in the United States. It basically said, you will have to use expensive union labor or else. It was a clear message that to not do business here, and that our Government will not help you. The opposite of the message Obama was trying to sell the American people last Saturday.

Below is a link to the article on his weekly address from last Saturday:

Obama’s Weekly Address: Bringing Jobs Back To The U.S.

Closing Numbers - 1/13/12

2012-01-14T15:53:00.002-05:00

Sorry for the late post everyone, but yesterday I had my annual cancer check. Thankfully, it was clean again. That's 2 1/2 years in remission now.

As for yesterday's numbers, yet another lackluster day in the markets. The DOW was off 49, the NASDAQ off 14, and the S&P off 6. No change in my bullish sentiment yet. I am still targeting 12,800 on the DOW.

Futures Down

2012-01-13T09:26:00.001-05:00

Futures are currently down, but not by a lot.

If you are Republican, it's got to be Romney

2012-01-12T16:30:00.003-05:00

Notice how I said "Republican". Democrats will vote for Barack Obama. Additionally, Democrats usually fault Republicans for not picking another Democrat in their primaries [I do not mean an actual Democrat, but a Republican that is an exact replica of a Democrat]. I know that sounds ludicrous, but it's true.

So why do I believe that it has to be Romney? First of all, let us establish the main goal of ALL Republicans in 2012....DEFEAT BARACK OBAMA on November 6th. With that in mind, let's review the candidates still left in the race:

1. Rick Santorum - There is no way Rick Santorum can win in November. While his beliefs may fit well with the far right of the Republican party, they do not play well with the majority of Americans. While Rick Santorum and Barack Obama are against same sex marriage, Santorum has gone a lot further by comparing homosexuality to beastiality. This is just not going to fly in the general election.

To emphasize my point, Santorum could only garner 9% of the vote in New Hampshire after almost winning Iowa. New Hampshire's primary reflects the general electorate much more than Iowa does.

2. Newt Gingrich - There is no way Newt Gingrich can win in November. One of the main things you need to win in the general election is likability. This is one of the reasons George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004. The candidates he was up against seem wooden, distant, and out of reach, while Bush came across as a guy you could have a beer with. Is that fair or a good way to pick a president? No, it isn't, but politics are not fair, and likability is unfortunately a big factor in how we pick our presidents.

Gingrich has always came across as a mean/bad person. This was solidified by his ethics issues in congress, and his infidelity with his previous two wives. Recently, Gingrich has said that he has changed his ways, however, as soon as things went bad for him in Iowa, the "old" Gingrich was back. This is evident in how negative he has now gone against Mitt Romney, and has basically said he is out for revenge. This does not help him or the Republican party, but he doesn't care. Just today he ran an untruthful 28 minute "documentary" against Romney. See this CNN article below that points out all of untruth's in the video:

Gingrich's 'Bain bomb' fizzles

How well has going negative gone for Newt? He only received 9% of the New Hampshire vote last Tuesday.

3. Rick Perry - Unlike Gingrich and Santorum, I think Perry did have a chance at the beginning. He did not have any immediate strikes against him like the other two did. However, it looks like he could not overcome his poor debate performances early on in the campaign, and his immigration stance. This was evident from his almost last place finish in Iowa (just 10% of the vote). Additionally, despite concentrating everything in South Carolina right now, he can only capture about 5% of the vote in recent polls. This shows that he is a weak candidate.

Lastly, Perry is now going negative like Gingrich, and basically attacking free enterprise. Really a no-no if you are a Republican. It also shows a lack of class and desperation. This would not bode well for him if we he was the nominee.

4. Jon Huntsman - Huntsman also did not have any immediate strikes against him, however, he is more liberal than most Republicans. Therefore, if you are a Republican, you would only vote for him if you thought he could beat Obama. On that score, you can see that he is a weak candidate. He lived in New Hampshire and campaigned there for months (he did not even campaign in Iowa), yet he could only garner 17% of the vote last Tuesday, finishing a distant third. He does not have the organization, message, and appeal to defeat Barack Obama.

5. Ron Paul - Despite Ron Paul's great appeal among young voters, and good vote totals in Iowa and New Hampshire, I do not think he has a chance to beat Barack Obama. One of the reasons is that the country does not want to elect someone who is perceived as a racist. Newsletters from the 1990's with Ron Paul's name on it contained racist content. For example, one newsletter stated that Martin Luther King was a "world-class philanderer who beat up his paramours". Not good. Ron Paul maintains that he never saw the content of the newsletters, however, his name was on them, and he profited from their sale. So, it would seem difficult for him to distance himself completely from them.

Additionally, Ron Paul's foreign policy views are different from mainstream America. While it is very appealing to most of the country to get out of the current wars we are in, there is definite fear over Iran, and the people will want someone they feel will protect them. Keep in mind that Ron Paul was against how we nabbed Osama Bin Laden. This definitely went against the mainstream.

6. Mitt Romney - So here we are at Mitt Romney. He is not the perfect candidate by any stretch, but his initial negatives can be overcome, unlike the other candidates. Negatives would include flip flopping on issues, and being perceived as an uncaring wealthy man who is out of touch with regular Americans. That last one is being highlighted by other Republicans now, as they hit Romney for his time spent working for Bain Capital.

Of the two negatives, I think the first is harder to get past. This was the same claim leveled on John Kerry by George W. Bush, and he never got past it. However, it is not like being a bigot or a racist. You can make a case for evolving from your earlier positions.

The second one could actually be a positive. Romney would need to emphasize Bain and his wealth as part of his successes. After all, his message is that he can take his success in business, and parlay that into building a prosperous nation. He would certainly need to highlight his success in turning around the Olympics, as part of his overall business acumen.

Besides his business attributes, Romney has been a Governor. Governors have had great success in winning the White House in recent years (Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr.). Additionally, Romney does have the money and organization to compete with Barack Obama. Obama has one of the best election organizations ever, and plans to raise $1 billion to finance his campaign.

In summary, I think it clear, that among the current candidates, if you are a Republican, you need to get over that Romney is not the perfect candidate and vote for him. Having him limp across the finish line only weakens his ability to beat Obama in November. And after all, that is your main goal...

Closing Numbers - 1/12/12

2012-01-12T16:13:00.002-05:00

Another slow day on Wall Street, as the DOW was up 22, the NASDAQ up 14, and the S&P up 3.

Again, no change in my bullish stance with today's action.

Markets Flat

2012-01-12T09:59:00.002-05:00

Not much movement today. Some bad economic data came out this morning. Retail sales only increased by a tenth of percent in December, which was below expectations. Additionally, now that seasonal hiring is over, jobless claims increased by 24,000 last week to almost 400,000. Over 400,000 is considered a bad number.

I think we will see a bad unemployment report next month. We'll see.

Closing Numbers - 1/11/12

2012-01-11T16:05:00.002-05:00

Another boring day on Wall Street, as the markets hardly moved. The DOW was down about 14, the NASDAQ was up 8, and the S&P was basically unchanged.

Again, no change in my stance.

I would say right now would be a pretty good time to invest in individual stocks. If you see a good chart, in my opinion, you should pull the trigger.

Futures Slightly Down

2012-01-11T07:56:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 1/10/12

2012-01-10T16:02:00.000-05:00

Good day on Wall Street. Not spectacular, but good. The DOW was up 69 points to 12,462, the NASDAQ was up 25, and the S&P was up 11.

My near term target on the DOW is still 12,800.

Futures

2012-01-10T07:17:00.000-05:00

Stock futures are looking good this morning. Should be a nice day on Wall Street.

Closing Numbers - 1/9/12

2012-01-09T16:17:00.002-05:00

Kind of a boring day on Wall Street. Not much movement either way. The DOW finished up 33, the NASDAQ up 2, and the S&P up 3.

The charts still look bullish, so no change in my short term analysis.

Market Futures Up

2012-01-09T09:19:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 1/6/12

2012-01-06T16:05:00.002-05:00

Surprising day on Wall Street, as the markets were mostly down despite a good jobs report. My take is that most felt that it was mainly due to seasonal hiring, and was a temporary bump. I would agree with that assessment. There are still a lot of problems in this economy.

Despite the drop in the market, the technicals still look good.

The final numbers had the DOW down 56, the NASDAQ up 4, and the S&P down 3.

Markets Down

2012-01-06T10:14:00.003-05:00

Despite a great employment report, the markets are down right now. However, they are not down significantly. Looking at the DOW chart, things are still very bullish:

Unemployment Report Better Than Expected...

2012-01-06T09:06:00.000-05:00

...but not better than I expected. Unemployment report showed that 200,000 jobs were created last month, 50,000 better than expected. The rate fell to 8.5%. It was expected to rise to 8.7%.

Based on the data I had been seeing, I had a pretty good feeling the report would come out this way.

Looking at the futures, they are all solidly green. Should be a good day on Wall Street.

Futures

2012-01-06T07:56:00.002-05:00

Futures are slightly up, however, that does not mean much. The unemployment report at 8:30am ET will. The expectations are 150,000 jobs created, and a rate of 8.7% (.1 higher than where it is now). I think we will get a better report than expected.

Closing Numbers - 1/5/12

2012-01-05T16:12:00.002-05:00

Markets were kind of flat again, with the DOW down 3, the S&P up 4, and the NASDAQ up 22.

I think from a fundamental and technical perspective the market is ready to fly tomorrow. I have a feeling that the unemployment report is going to be very good tomorrow. While it probably is a blip on the radar due to all the seasonal hires, it doesn't matter, the report will look good.

Futures

2012-01-05T07:43:00.001-05:00

Stock futures are currently down, but not by a whole lot. DOW futures down 65.

Closing Numbers - 1/4/12

2012-01-04T16:11:00.002-05:00

The markets were pretty much flat today. The DOW was up 21, and the NASDAQ and S&P were pretty much unchanged. Therefore, there is no change to my most recent analysis, which is short term bullish. I am targeting the DOW to hit 12,800 soon.

IOWA Caucus Results

2012-01-04T10:01:00.000-05:00

Results in red, my predictions from yesterday in italics:

1. Mitt Romney (27%) - I think he pulls it out. If he gets around that 27%, that will be a big surprise.

1. Mitt Romney (24.6%)

As you can see Mitt did win, but did not get above 25%. I think the win was a slight surprise, since he did not campaign there much until the end, and never had a lead in the polls until the final week or so. I believe he has the best chance to win it all now.

2. Rick Perry (20%) - This would be a huge surprise.

5. Rick Perry (10.3%)

I was thinking Perry would be the surprise of the night, but I was wrong. He finished about where he was polling. I thought he would be a legitimate competitor to Romney going forward, but I was wrong. It looks like he will drop out soon.

3. Rick Santorum (17%) - He has been surging, but I feel that will slow up by tonight.

2. Rick Santorum (24.5%)

I was wrong about Santorum's momentum slowing up, and he obviously took votes from Perry. However, I do not see him being a serious challenger after South Carolina. He is too far to the right to be elected. He once likened homosexuality to beastiality.

4. Ron Paul (16%) - Some polls have him on top, but I think he is sliding due to some racist newsletters from the past bearing his name

3. Ron Paul (21.4%)

I was right about Ron Paul sliding, he just did better percentage wise than I anticipated. I do not think he presents a serious challenge to Romney due to his foreign policy views, and those newsletters.

5. Newt Gingrich (10%) - He's been dropping like a rock.

4. Newt Gingrich (13.3%)

I was right about him dropping like a rock. He is still on the down swing, and his new vengeance campaign should finish off the job. Everyone remembers him as a nasty old man, and that is what he still is.

6. Michele Bachmann (8%) - No surprise here.

6. Michele Bachmann (5%)

This went as expected. I think she may drop out today.

7. Jon Hunstman (2%) - That is probably generous. He has not campaigned in Iowa, and actually ridiculed the caucus.

7. Jon Huntsman (1%)

This was as expected. I think there is still a shot that he becomes a legitimate contender to Romney, but that window is closing fast. If he does not get in the 20% or higher range in NH, I think he is done.

In sum, if you are a supporter of the GOP, I think you need to get behind Mitt Romney. I really do not think there is another viable candidate in the field that can possibly give Obama a run for his money. In that regard I think Obama is still favored to win at this point.

Futures Slightly Down

2012-01-04T07:52:00.000-05:00

Not much of indication of how today will go.

IOWA Caucus 2012 Predictions

2012-01-03T16:01:00.003-05:00

Here are my predictions:

1. Mitt Romney (27%) - I think he pulls it out. If he gets around that 27%, that will be a big surprise.

2. Rick Perry (20%) - This would be a huge surprise.

3. Rick Santorum (17%) - He has been surging, but I feel that will slow up by tonight.

4. Ron Paul (16%) - Some polls have him on top, but I think he is sliding due to some racist newsletters from the past bearing his name*

5. Newt Gingrich (10%) - He's been dropping like a rock.

6. Michele Bachmann (8%) - No surprise here.

7. Jon Hunstman (2%) - That is probably generous. He has not campaigned in Iowa, and actually ridiculed the caucus.

We'll see what happens tonight around 9pm ET.

* = These newsletters had Ron Paul's name in the title, and while he owned the publication, he said he never saw what was written in them.

Closing Numbers - 1/3/12

2012-01-03T16:00:00.001-05:00

Great start to the new year for the markets, as the DOW was up 179, the NASDAQ up 44, and the S&P up 19. The only negative would be that they fell into the close. The DOW had been up as much as 262 at one point. I still see a bullish week ahead though.

Big Day

2012-01-03T10:46:00.002-05:00

The DOW is currently up 238 to 12,456. I think we will see 12,800 by the end of the week.

Monster Day?

2012-01-03T07:14:00.001-05:00

It looks like the new year will start off with a bang. Market futures are way up this morning. This is what I was expecting for the first couple of weeks of the new year.

Closing Numbers - 12/30/11

2011-12-30T16:04:00.002-05:00

The 2011 trading year is over. Not a good year for me, and a slightly down year for the markets.

For today, the markets were down, with the DOW down 61, the NASDAQ down 9, and the S&P down 5. Despite the negative day, I still think the markets do well over the next couple of weeks (see previous post).

I am looking forward to a joyous 2012, although none of that has to do with the stock market. Lot's of big events in my life next year, and I am excited about them. I hope all of you have a wonderful and happy new year!

DOW Chart

2011-12-30T13:54:00.003-05:00

The DOW is off by 33 points, however, things still look bullish for the next couple of weeks:

There is some resistance at 12,300 now, but I think that will fall next week.

Stock Futures Flat

2011-12-30T07:34:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 12/29/11

2011-12-29T16:22:00.002-05:00

Good day for the markets, as they pretty much erased yesterday's losses. The DOW was up 136, the NASDAQ up 24, and the S&P up 13.

In past years I have mentioned the "January Effect". A bullish phenomena that sometimes occurs at the start of January as funds increase positions. I think we may see it in 2012.

Markets Up

2011-12-29T10:08:00.002-05:00

The markets are up this morning, with the DOW ahead 84, the NASDAQ up 5, and the S&P up 7.

Closing Numbers - 12/28/11

2011-12-28T16:13:00.003-05:00

A down day for the markets, as the DOW finished off by 140, the NASDAQ by 35, and the S&P by 18.

Even though the DOW finished 20 points lower than where it was when I made my previous post, the analysis is still the same.

I would chalk today up to profit taking.

No Worries

2011-12-28T11:39:00.003-05:00

The DOW is down 120 right now, but there should be no worries if you are bullish. See chart below:

As you can see, the DOW is heading down to support which is around the three major moving averages. It is also heading down to support on the MACD (center line) and the RSI (50). Additionally, it is getting ready to make a Golden Cross (50 DMA crossing over 200 DMA), which is usually a very bullish indicator.

Keep in mind this is all technical, and does not factor in any negative world events that may occur.

Futures Slightly Higher

2011-12-28T08:10:00.000-05:00

Closing Numbers - 12/27/11

2011-12-27T16:33:00.003-05:00

The markets were flat in pre-market, and that is where they ended. They were all about as close to unchanged as you can get. The DOW was down 3, the NASDAQ up 7, and the S&P essentially flat.

With today's inaction, I still stick by what I said Friday.

Congress is Crazy

2011-12-27T13:57:00.002-05:00

In the 2 month extension of the payroll tax cut bill, congress decided it was a good idea to increase the fees on FHA loans. Just brilliant. The housing industry is in the toilet, so now you make it more expensive to buy one???

Does anyone think over there?

Futures Flat

2011-12-27T07:37:00.000-05:00

Currently, the futures are pretty much flat. DOW futures down just 11.

Closing Numbers - 12/23/11

2011-12-23T16:05:00.002-05:00

Good day for the markets, as the DOW was up 124, the NASDAQ up 19, and the S&P up 11. The DOW closed at 12,294. That should be enough to be considered "breaking through resistance" at 12,200. Therefore, we should see a bullish trend over the next couple of weeks, and a challenge of the high made in July of about 12,800. The 52-week high is just below 13,000 made back in May.

Futures

2011-12-23T09:21:00.000-05:00

Futures are slightly positive. Should be an interesting day on light volume.

Closing Numbers - 12/22/11

2011-12-22T16:55:00.000-05:00

The markets had a decent day today, with the DOW up 62, the NASDAQ up 21, and the S&P up 10.

The DOW now has all indicators reading bullish: It is above all three major moving averages, it's RSI is above 50 and rising, and it's MACD just went positive*. I put an asterisk there because it's not really bullish in my opinion, until we see follow through the next day. In the past I have seen it fall below the center line the very next day after going above it, so I like to wait to call it "bullish". There is also another big problem here. The DOW closed at 12,170 today, and was as high as 12,183, just below major resistance at 12,200. It really needs to blow through that before you can feel good if you are a bull. See chart below:

As you can see, the DOW has failed to truly clear 12,200 on several occasions over the last couple of months. So it is a pretty important level to get past if you are bullish.

Flat

2011-12-22T09:23:00.001-05:00

Markets were essentially flat yesterday, and the futures are looking that way this morning. This despite good news on unemployment claims. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.

Futures

2011-12-21T08:58:00.001-05:00

Market futures are currently slightly down.

Closing Numbers - 12/20/11

2011-12-20T16:10:00.002-05:00

Great day on Wall Street as the DOW was up 337, the NASDAQ was up 81, and the S&P was up 36. As I mentioned in the post below, today erased a number of bearish indicators. However, if you are a bull you are not out of the woods yet. 12,200 is still major major resistance. The DOW closed at 12,107 today.

Never Time the Market

2011-12-20T10:33:00.002-05:00

That is an old saying, but as you have seen over the last few weeks it's good advice. I bring this up because the DOW is up 259 points today. This is due to a better than expected housing report.

The DOW is now over all three major moving averages. The RSI is above 50 again. The MACD is headed for a bullish crossover, and the DOW make may a Golden Cross soon (a bullish indicator that occurs when the 50 DMA crosses over the 200 DMA).

I am not saying you should be bullish now, what I am saying is that we could get a bullish pattern very soon, just a day after it looked like we were in a bearish one.

Thankfully, I have no money involved here.

Who will win the IOWA Caucasus? Who will win the Nomination?

2011-12-20T09:19:00.000-05:00

It has been a pretty exciting race for the White House already, with Republicans having a tough time deciding who they want to run against Barrack Obama. I think this is because the field is weak.

In recent years the Iowa Caucasus have not always predicted the winner of the nomination, however, this year I think it has a good chance to do so. In my opinion, the winner will either be Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Oops, did I say Rick Perry? Yes, I did, and I meant to.

I have been following the polls, and the trends, and I have calculated in the unpredictability of the Caucasus themselves. From what I can see, Gingrich is declining into oblivion, and Santorum, Bachman, and Hunstman are too low at this point to be revived. That leaves Romney and Perry.

Romney has always had a solid base of supporters, it just has not been high enough to surpass the latest "flavor of the month" that Republicans have been enamored with. Iowa's Republicans are more conservative than other states, so they have had a hard time being supportive of Romney since they doubt his sincerity as a conservative. However, they definitely do not want to see another term for Obama, and they may now be coming around to the idea that Romney is the best chance to accomplish that.

As for Perry, he does have the conservative credentials, but has made a series of gaffes and has had a number of poor debate performances. However, he did well in the last two Iowa debates, and has increased his ad spending and time in the state. His polling numbers have increased from 5% to 16%, and is now in 3rd position in one recent poll. He might have enough momentum to win.

Why I think the Iowa Caucus result could propel the winner to the nomination: For Mitt Romney, it will be an upset win for him in Iowa, and show that the also rans have no chance against the real front runner. The next primary is in New Hampshire, and Mitt has never lost his lead there. He would have back to back wins after that primary if he wins Iowa. I think that would be enough to convince Republicans that he is the real front runner, and that they need to unite behind him for an eventual victory against Obama.

For Rick Perry, it will revive a campaign that had once been on top. It will show that he could compete with Romney, and is a viable candidate. With many Republicans seeking an alternative to Romney, they will finally have their best "anyone but Romney" candidate. Romney would still win New Hampshire if he was defeated in Iowa, but Rick would be a shoe-in for South Carolina, and possibly Florida as well. A win there could easily propel Perry to the nomination.

We'll see soon enough. The Caucasus are just two weeks away...

Futures Up

2011-12-20T07:40:00.000-05:00

Market futures are up this morning, but not by a wide margin.

Closing Numbers - 12/19/11

2011-12-19T16:07:00.001-05:00

Bad day for the markets, however, this should have been expected. The DOW was down 100 points, the NASDAQ down 32, and the S&P down 14.

The DOW put up a fight this morning, as it went as high as 11,925 (+60), just under the 200 DMA (11,937), but later capitulated. After that failure, it broke below the 50 DMA (11,821), and closed below it. That was the last major moving average to fall. The DOW is now below all three for the first time since late November.

I am targeting the DOW to fall as low as 10,600 to 10,800 over the next couple of weeks or so.

Futures Slightly Up

2011-12-19T08:58:00.001-05:00

Futures Slightly Higher

2011-12-16T07:40:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 12/15/11

2011-12-15T16:16:00.003-05:00

The markets were up modestly today, with the DOW up 45, the NASDAQ up 2, and the S&P up 4.

This was a fairly weak day, and did nothing to change my bearish outlook. The RSI on the DOW is still below 50, and the MACD is still in negative territory. I would think the market will be down substantially tomorrow, but we'll see.

Futures Up

2011-12-15T07:22:00.003-05:00

Stock futures are slightly up this morning. However, yesterday the markets ended down. The DOW was down 131 points. This pushed it below the 200 DMA, sent the RSI below 50, and the MACD into negative territory. The DOW is now just above the 50 DMA (11,775). I think that is why we are seeing a little bounce this morning. In my opinion this should be short lived. The DOW should head down to around 10,600 in the coming days/weeks.

Out of Pocket

2011-12-14T13:39:00.002-05:00

I will not be around for the close, so I will not be able to see if we have a bear signal. Looking at the intra day, I would think a loss of 100 points or more on the DOW today would do it.

As an asside, the pattern is starting to look like an upside down "W", which is very bearish:

Futures Down

2011-12-14T07:47:00.001-05:00

Market futures are down, but not by a lot. However, they have been getting worse. Will we get our bear signal today?

Closing Numbers - 12/13/11

2011-12-13T16:57:00.001-05:00

The markets finished down today. The DOW was off 66, the NASDAQ down 33, and the S&P down 11. The DOW finished below 12,000 support (11,955), but still closed above the 200 DMA (11,943). Therefore, I do not see it as enough to cause a big breakdown.

All the indicators are still on support. The DOW is above all three major moving averages, the RSI is above the 50 level, and the MACD is still above the center line. A decent drop tomorrow though should eliminate all of that. If that occurs, then I think we would be safe in assuming a pretty steep downtrend in the coming weeks.

So far, every time we hit one of these points where we might get a clear signal of the markets future direction, it goes the opposite way. We'll see what happens this time around...

Futures Up

2011-12-13T07:24:00.002-05:00

It looks like the DOW will now bounce off support and possibly challenge 12,200 again.

Market Trying To Make Up It's Mind

2011-12-12T11:00:00.001-05:00

No breakout for the DOW today, instead it fell back to support at around 12,000. For over a week now it has been bouncing between support (12,000) and resistance (12,200). Conventional wisdom would say that a move significantly above resistance or below support will tell us our future direction for the next several weeks.

Closing Numbers - 12/9/11

2011-12-09T16:41:00.002-05:00

Good day for the markets, as the DOW was up 187, the NASDAQ was up 50, and the S&P was up 21. All the indexes were close to erasing all of yesterday's losses.

The DOW closed at 12,184, just under resistance at 12,200. If you have been reading the blog the last few days, you know how this level has been tough for the DOW to get through. Looking at my commentary from last night, you can see that the DOW is very close to following the bullish route I outlined. It bounced off support today, so all we need now is for the DOW to smash through, and close well above, 12,200 on Monday. That would be a very bullish move. We'll see what happens.

Futures Flat

2011-12-09T09:13:00.001-05:00

The futures are flat this morning. Should be an interesting day.

Closing Numbers - 12/8/11

2011-12-08T16:43:00.000-05:00

The markets had a bad day today, the DOW was down 199, the NASDAQ was down 53, and the S&P was down 27. The chart for the DOW is below:

The DOW looks like it is on support right now.

I could see this going one or two ways in the next couple of days. One route would be for support to hold, and then the DOW to really break through 12,200. A good breakout over that level should send it up to around 12,750 in the short term. The other route would be a break of support, and a severe correction down to below 11,000 in the short term. Obviously we could be flat for a while, but I really think it will be one of those two routes. We'll see.

Futures Flat

2011-12-08T08:17:00.001-05:00

Stock futures are pretty much flat this morning. The DOW was up 46 to 12,196 yesterday. Just under 12,200 resistance. Today should be interesting.

Markets

2011-12-07T11:05:00.001-05:00

The markets are down right now. Not by a lot though. Unless we get a big move either way by the close, I doubt today will provide us any clues on where the market is headed in the short term (short term being the next couple of weeks or so).

Closing Numbers - 12/6/11

2011-12-06T16:02:00.001-05:00

The markets were mixed today with the DOW up 52, the NASDAQ down 6, and the S&P up 1. The DOW closed at 12,150, but was as high as 12,216. So it did break 12,200, but not by much. And it did not close over it as well. I am not sure if the 16 point breach is enough to be a catalyst for a near term breakout. I think we will have to see what happens tomorrow.

Futures Up

2011-12-06T07:15:00.001-05:00

Stock futures are up, but barely. Not very much of an indication of where we are headed today. We'll keep an eye on it.

Closing Numbers - 12/5/11

2011-12-05T16:02:00.002-05:00

A positive day on Wall Street, but not by much. The DOW was up 79, the NASDAQ up 29, and the S&P up 13.

The DOW was as high as 12,187 at one point, which was +156. As you can see, it could not penetrate stiff resistance at 12,200. Tomorrow could be a telling day for the short term direction of the market. Another failure at 12,200 could send the market down big. On the other hand, a break of 12,200 may mean that we will see the highs set this summer around 12,750. Below is the current DOW chart:

Markets

2011-12-05T07:23:00.002-05:00

Futures are up decently right now.

It looks like the DOW closed down 1 on Friday. This despite a good unemployment report. I would say that is not a good sign, but we shall see. I think the key will be the 12,200 level. If the DOW can get by that today, the market could be making yet another change in direction. The technicals look decent, but I think we need to see a clearing of resistance first.

Out Early

2011-12-02T10:54:00.000-05:00

I will not be around for the close, so I will make my commentary late Sunday or Monday. The market is surprising lukewarm today, despite the great news. I would still be very cautious if I was a bull.

Unemployment Rate Drops

2011-12-02T08:46:00.001-05:00

We had a great jobs report today, only 120,000 jobs created, but the rate fell to 8.6% from 9.1%. Futures were already up big, so this should keep it going.

Futures Up

2011-12-02T07:12:00.001-05:00

Stock futures are up strong this morning. Will the DOW break 12,200?

Closing Numbers - 12/1/11

2011-12-01T16:32:00.003-05:00

Markets closed mixed today, with the DOW down 26, the NASDAQ up 6, and the S&P down 2.

Looking at the chart for the DOW, the MACD did go positive today, but barely. It was not by enough for the bulls to claim victory, in my opinion. You would want to see a break of 12,200 before starting to feel more confident of a bullish future. The DOW is currently at 12,020.

Gingrich Has Best Plan

2011-12-01T10:45:00.002-05:00

About a month ago I said I was disappointed with all of the job recovery plans I saw from the candidates and Obama. However, I never checked Gingrich's plan. I really didn't think he had a shot. Now that he does, I took a look. Here it is:

Newt's Job Plan

Of course there is more to being President than the economy. There is foreign policy, and the character of the man himself (or woman). I am not sure about Newt on the last two, so I am not sure whether I would vote for him. I actually liked Romney's foreign policy views. The first primary is about a month or so away, so we'll see what happens...

Futures Flat

2011-12-01T08:03:00.001-05:00

Closing Numbers - 11/30/11

2011-11-30T16:13:00.001-05:00

Game changer?? Big day on Wall Street, as the markets sky rocketed today. The DOW was up almost 500 points, and closed back over the 12,000 level. The NASDAQ was up 105, and the S&P was up 52. All of this from a much better than expected payroll number from ADP, and new cooperation between European central banks and our Fed.

As you can see, today's jump had nothing to do with the technicals. However, it is still wise to keep them in mind. Below is the current DOW chart:

As you can see, today's action has a chance to be a game changer. The DOW closed above all of it's major moving averages today, and its RSI went above 50. However, there is still some things bulls need to be leery of. One is the MACD. It is still negative, and almost just below the center line. This can cause extreme resistance. Additionally, there is a lot of resistance around 12,200. Based on these factors, I am not willing to change over to being bullish yet.

Futures Up (updated)

2011-11-30T08:09:00.002-05:00

Futures up slightly. I do not expect much of an up day today, if it at all.

UPDATE: Big news out! The ADP report on private sector employment shows a gain of 206,000 jobs in November. This is a big jump. Therefore, I would have to say the market will have a strong showing today. Will it be enough for a technical turn around? We shall see. Right now I am thinking no, but I obviously cannot be sure.

Closing Numbers - 11/29/11

2011-11-29T16:09:00.001-05:00

The markets finished mixed today, with the DOW up 33, the NASDAQ down 12, and the S&P up 3. I had thought the DOW would end down today, but it managed a slightly positive close. However, it did close about 70 points below the high.

Looking at the chart, down still looks like the future direction. The DOW did close above it's 50 DMA, but that is the only positive.

Futures Up

2011-11-29T08:29:00.001-05:00

Futures are up right now, but not by much. I would look for an early rise followed by a drop. I think the markets will close down today.

Closing Numbers - 11/28/11

2011-11-28T16:04:00.002-05:00

Great day for the markets, as they were all up strong. The DOW was up 291, the NASDAQ was up 86, and the S&P was up 34. Despite these gains, I am still bearish. The DOW was not even able close above it's 50 DMA (11,538).

Every Dog Has It's Day

2011-11-28T08:44:00.002-05:00

The futures are up very strong this morning. I imagine that is due to record Black Friday sales. Regardless, I think the overall trend is down, and that today will be a one day wonder. We shall see...

Closing Numbers - 11/25/11

2011-11-25T13:18:00.002-05:00

The markets were down today, but not by a lot. The DOW was down 26, the NASDAQ was down 19, and the S&P was down 3. The volume was light and the markets closed at 1pm ET, so that had something with today's slight movement.

As I mentioned in the previous post, I am still looking for more downside next week.

Futures Down

2011-11-25T09:28:00.002-05:00

Markets open soon, and it looks like they will open slightly down. I am not looking for any kind of sustained rally until at least when the DOW hits RSI 30. Currently it is at 38.